The Pandemic Hit on Public Finance
The emergence of a series of COVID variants this year suggests that we are merely in middle of the pandemic
Stress Test the States
State finances offer an enormous systemic risk for the country as we have seen recently. For the too large to fail banks, the remedy for managing this type of risk has been stress testing and it should be extended in a politically appropriate way to the states.
A COVID Lesson on Infrastructure
Dr. Philip Fischer clearly endorses large infrastructure investments, but thinks that this bill is off target. In his view, the disconnect between the COVID emergency, which we continue to experience, and future investment, is both illogical and dangerous.
They’re gonna write a book about this
Dr. Philip Fischer shares his thesis that the two inexorable factors of life, death and taxes, are headed materially higher in this COVID age. What’s going to be roaring here isn’t the flappers but the Fed.
If 2020 spells CHAOS, what does 2021 spell?
Dr. Philip Fischer shares his thesis that we will overcome the pandemic but at a high cost and that we need to look forward to the other challenges in 2021.
New State Ratings: AA(Red) and AA(Blue)?
Dr. Philip Fischer shares his thesis that among other things, elections are economic statements. This presidential election seems to be telling us that the states are bifurcating. The data supports this and bond ratings should reflect it directly.
A Nation of Hoarders Passes the Tipping Point – Pay Attention to the States
States built up rainy day funds, which were clearly inadequate. Unless the Congress moves to help them, they will be cutting programs and rainy day funds in the future will dramatically expand as the states hoard money to protect their current level of expenditures.
Unemployment Messages to the Cities
Dr. Philip Fischer provides an assessment of current unemployment, saying that the focus of the unemployment problem is going to be the city’s, which are facing deep population problems.
Understanding the MMT Curve
Dr. Philip Fischer provides a way to explain the current steepening of the triple AAA GO curve. He contends that it reflects expected inflationary pressures from large treasury deficits.
Big Muni Spreads Don’t Mean Big Defaults
Dr. Philip Fischer provides a novel approach to muni bond spread analysis and concludes that widening spreads do not necessarily imply increased expected default rates.